The draw ceremony for the United States–Canada–Mexico 2026 World Cup has concluded. All 42 already-qualified teams have been assigned their groups, and the six playoff qualifiers also know their potential group placements. Based on the group-stage format and the distribution of teams, this tournament features virtually no “Group of Death.”
With the draw now complete, the group stage is expected to carry limited suspense, and the following six teams are widely viewed as near-certain favorites to top their groups.
In past World Cups, only 16 out of 32 teams advanced to the knockout rounds, which meant that even traditional powerhouses could be eliminated early. Germany famously suffered group-stage exits in two consecutive tournaments.
Under the new format, 48 teams are divided into 12 groups, with the top two teams in each group plus the eight best third-placed teams advancing to the Round of 32. As a result, the risk of early elimination for major footballing nations has been greatly reduced.
Belgium, placed in Group G, are overwhelming favorites to finish first. Iran have never advanced from a World Cup group, New Zealand lack competitive depth, and Egypt, while dangerous at times, do not match Belgium’s overall quality.
In Group H, Spain received one of the easiest draws. Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde are unlikely to pose a threat, and Uruguay—without Luis Suárez and Edinson Cavani—have declined significantly. Darwin Núñez alone is unlikely to change their trajectory, leaving Spain with a clear path to the top spot.
Group I is dominated by France, one of the most consistent teams in modern World Cup history, having reached the final in the last two tournaments. Norway boast Erling Haaland and Martin Ødegaard, but the team as a whole remains far below France’s level. Senegal, led by Sadio Mané, also lack the depth to truly challenge Les Bleus. The playoff entrant—whether Iraq, Bolivia, or Suriname—is similarly unlikely to trouble the group favorites.
The defending champions Argentina, led by Lionel Messi, landed in Group J. Jordan are among the weakest teams in the tournament, while Austria and Algeria fit within the third tier of global football. Argentina should have little difficulty securing first place.
In Group K, Portugal, led by Cristiano Ronaldo, are expected to dominate. Uzbekistan are making their World Cup debut and lack top-level experience, while Colombia, though competitive, still trail Portugal in overall strength. The playoff contenders—DR Congo, Jamaica, and New Caledonia—will celebrate merely reaching the tournament, and advancing from the group appears unlikely.
Lastly, England in Group L will face Panama, a team they comfortably defeated 6–1 at the 2018 World Cup. Ghana are decent but inconsistent, and Croatia remain heavily reliant on aging stars such as Luka Modrić (40), Ivan Perišić (36), and Andrej Kramarić (34). With superior depth and physicality, England are strong candidates to finish as group winners.
What are your thoughts on the 2026 World Cup group draw?
