This year’s Manchester Derby promises to be more intriguing than ever. Manchester City are undergoing a massive rebuild, while Manchester United have reshaped their attacking trident. Both sides have managed only one win from their first three Premier League matches of the new season, and many of their conceded goals have come from opponents exploiting counterattacks. In this head-to-head clash, the key question is: who will fear the counter more, and who can execute transitional play better?
Rúben Amorim and Xabi Alonso, the new-wave managers, have refined the back-three system originally inspired by Pep Guardiola’s inverted full-back approach, which created a 3-2-5 or 3-1-6 structure in high pressing. Guardiola uses inverted full-backs to step into midfield, whereas Amorim prefers to field three natural centre-backs to provide deeper cover.
In fact, many analysts on social media still describe Guardiola’s City as a team that builds play in a back-three shape: three defenders stretched wide, a double pivot offering central support, and the attacking midfielder sometimes dropping deep to connect. Although the passing logic differs, the overall shape is strikingly similar.
The inherent weakness of this system is clear: when the high press fails to trap the ball, opponents can carry it directly through midfield and run at the centre-backs. That’s exactly what happened in City’s defeats to Brighton (1-2) and Tottenham (0-2) this season—both goals came from direct transitional attacks.
So, the tactical blueprint against City is straightforward: allow their back three to have possession, overload the midfield to suffocate Rodri and the pivots, deny easy progression into the final third, and then unleash a ball-carrier with pace to drive through the middle, instantly creating danger.
The problem for United is that they, too, are vulnerable to this. For the past two seasons, United’s midfield has been alarmingly porous, like an open highway. In this derby, whoever executes counters and transitions with greater efficiency will hold the edge.
United face an added issue: Matheus Cunha is sidelined. In Amorim’s system, Cunha is vital—he controls possession, drives the ball forward, and creates opportunities for Bryan Mbeumo cutting inside from the weak side.
This season, only two United players have taken more than eight shots:
Cunha, averaging an attempt distance of 19 meters (a long-range shooter).
Mbeumo, averaging 14 meters (a penalty-box finisher).
With Cunha absent and Mason Mount struggling to link in the half-spaces, United’s lineup choices will be critical. The big question: can Benjamin Šeško step up in the No. 9 role?
Compared to City’s squad depth, United’s cards are very much on the table.
