Freiburg arrive in Munich knowing that even a draw would border on the miraculous. Bayern are flawless this season—almost—and the Allianz Arena is not the place where underdogs often dream.
Bayern: Relentless Under Kompany
After the setbacks of the 2023/2024 campaign, Bayern Munich turned to Vincent Kompany. The decision paid off instantly: Bayern roared back to reclaim the Meisterschale with confidence and authority.
This season has been even more dominant. Bayern have won every single match across all competitions—from the Supercup to their latest Champions League victory over PSG. The only blemish came right before the international break, when Union Berlin held them to a draw thanks to a stoppage-time strike from Harry Kane.
Bayern’s numbers are terrifying: they score 3.5 goals per match and concede just 0.6. It is total control, total power, total Bayern.
Freiburg: Strong, Competitive… but Outgunned
Freiburg finished fifth last season and were genuine top-four contenders for much of the campaign. But this summer brought change in the dugout, with Schuster taking over—a transition that has brought mixed results.
They have not matched their 2024/2025 form, yet they remain dangerous. Two of their three Bundesliga defeats came early in the season, and their Europa League run has been impressive, dropping points only once in four matches.
Their metrics show balance but not brilliance: Freiburg average 1.3 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match—respectable, but not the profile of a team ready to challenge Bayern in Munich.
Key Statistics & Trends
• Bayern have failed to win only one match this entire season
• Just 40% of Bayern matches see both teams score
• Bayern games average 4.1 total goals
• Freiburg have won three of their last four matches
• 60% of Freiburg games** end with both teams scoring
• Freiburg matches average 2.7 total goals
Probable Starting Lineups
Bayern:
Neuer – Stanisic, Tah, Upamecano, Laimer – Goretzka, Kimmich, Dias, Gnabry, Olise – Kane
Freiburg:
Atubolu – Günter, Lienhart, Ginter, Treu – Manzambi, M. Eggestein, Grifo, Suzuki, Beste – Adamu
Head-to-Head
In their last nine encounters, Bayern have won seven times, with just one Freiburg victory and one draw. Traditionally, this matchup is very one-sided.
Match Prediction & Betting Advice
It is hard to imagine Bayern stumbling twice in a row. Their talent, depth, form, and home advantage make them overwhelming favorites—and Freiburg, though competitive, are not equipped to resist Bayern’s attacking waves.
The handicap market offers the best value.
Recommended Bet: Bayern -1.5 Handicap
Odds: 1.60
Bet365-Style Betting Analysis Table
Market | Prediction | Odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
Match Result | Bayern Win | 1.20 | ★★★★★ |
Handicap | Bayern -1.5 | 1.60 | ★★★★☆ |
Goals: Over/Under | Over 3.5 Goals | 1.85 | ★★★☆☆ |
Both Teams to Score | No | 1.72 | ★★★☆☆ |
Correct Score | Bayern 3–0 Freiburg | 10.00 | ★★☆☆☆ |
Confidence Index (Overall Pick): 86% – Very High Confidence
