Estoril Praia vs Arouca Prediction – Primeira Liga Round 11 Preview (November 7, 2025)
Match Overview
In the 11th round of the Portuguese Primeira Liga, Estoril Praia host Arouca in a crucial lower-table clash that could have major implications for both clubs’ survival hopes. With both sides hovering near the danger zone, three points here would be invaluable.
Team Form and Analysis
Estoril Praia
Last season, Estoril were one of the pleasant surprises of the league, finishing 8th with 46 points — a solid performance for a modest club from the Lisbon suburbs. However, this campaign has been far less convincing.
Despite a difficult start, Estoril seem to be finding rhythm again. They are now unbeaten in four consecutive matches, capped by an emphatic 4–0 victory over Rio Ave in the last round. That result not only boosted morale but also showcased the team’s attacking power and defensive improvement.
Ian Cathro’s side currently average 1.5 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match, figures that underline their balanced but occasionally inconsistent nature.
Recent Form (all competitions): W–D–W–D–W
Home Record: Solid, with goals in each of their last five home fixtures.
Arouca
Arouca’s 2024–25 campaign ended in disappointment, as they narrowly missed out on 11th place due to tiebreakers, finishing with 38 points. The current season has not started much better.
Under manager Daniel Sousa, Arouca have endured a rough patch, losing four of their last six matches, including a 0–2 defeat to Moreirense in the previous round. Defensive frailty continues to haunt them — they concede an average of 2.6 goals per game, one of the highest rates in the division, while scoring just 1.0 per match.
The team’s attack, led by Rafa Barbero, has struggled for consistency, and their midfield lacks the control needed to manage transitions effectively.
Recent Form: L–L–W–D–L
Away Record: Weak — one win in their last six away matches.
Key Statistics and Trends
Estoril Praia are unbeaten in their last 4 matches.
60% of Estoril’s games see both teams scoring, with an average of 2.9 total goals per match.
Arouca have lost 4 of their last 6 league games.
50% of Arouca’s fixtures end with both teams scoring, with an average of 3.6 goals per game.
Head-to-head: Arouca have won 4 of the last 7 encounters, while Estoril claimed 2 wins.
Probable Lineups
Estoril Praia (4-2-3-1):
Robles – Gonçalo Costa, Bacher, Boma, Tsungi – João Carvalho, Holsgrove – Jandro Orellana, Carvalho, Laxmikant – Begraoui
Arouca (4-3-3):
Valido – Sola, Fontan, Popovic, Esgaio – David Simão, Fukui, Gosalbes – Juahra, Tressa – Barbero
Betfair Market Index (Implied Probability)
Outcome | Betfair Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
Estoril Praia Win | 2.02 | 49% |
Draw | 3.40 | 29% |
Arouca Win | 3.85 | 22% |
Over 2.5 Goals | 1.92 | 52% |
Both Teams to Score – Yes | 1.88 | 53% |
Market sentiment strongly favors Estoril Praia, who are in better form and have home advantage.
Expert Prediction
Estoril Praia’s recent resurgence, combined with Arouca’s ongoing defensive issues, makes the hosts the logical pick. The visitors’ backline has been leaking goals, and unless they tighten up, Estoril should capitalize again.
✅ Prediction: Estoril Praia to Win – 2.02
Alternative Bet: Estoril Praia to Win & Over 2.5 Goals (around 3.10)
Predicted Score: Estoril Praia 3–1 Arouca
