Can Wales level with North Macedonia on points before their head-to-head clash?
Wales desperately need a convincing win against Liechtenstein. They currently trail by three points for the second spot in Group J and are six goals behind on goal difference. However, Craig Bellamy's squad often struggles against low defensive blocks. Can they break this trend and score a few goals at the Rheinpark Stadium in Vaduz?
Head-to-Head
The national teams previously clashed during the 2010 World Cup qualifiers, with Wales winning both encounters 2-0. In the current qualifiers, the balance of power remains unchanged, and the goal advantage has slightly increased to 3-0.
Liechtenstein are among the weakest national teams in Europe and the world, sitting 206th out of 210 in the FIFA rankings. They have yet to score a goal in the current qualification campaign, with their last goal coming nearly a year ago, on November 18, 2024, in the Nations League against San Marino (1-3).
In the current qualifiers, only Moldova and San Marino have a worse goal difference than Liechtenstein. The Liechtenstein squad generally struggles to create chances, with only three shots and a total xG of 0.32 in their last game against Wales.
Wales
Wales maintain a solid chance of advancing to the playoffs. They currently sit third in Group J but aim to level on points with North Macedonia after their match against Liechtenstein. However, Craig Bellamy's team struggles to score against lower-tier teams. For instance, against both Liechtenstein and Kazakhstan, the "Dragons" failed to score more than three goals.
Wales have shown the beauty of Craig Bellamy's counter-attacking style, particularly against Belgium, where they scored five of their 13 qualification goals. Yet in their last home game, they lacked incisiveness in positional play. Despite 65% possession, Wales managed only nine shots with a total xG of 1.07, making the final score of 2-4 an overperformance.
Latest news
Liechtenstein
Liechtenstein will miss two forwards, Kenny Kindle and Fabio Luque-Notaro, while defender Jens Hofer is suspended due to yellow card accumulation. Early goals from the hosts seem unlikely.
Wales
Craig Bellamy commented on the recent matches against Belgium:
“Since I took over in September, I’ve been proud to be their coach. These matches showed the players what they’re capable of. They need to understand their quality and gain confidence. We’re moving forward.”
Wales will be without key players including captain Aaron Ramsey, first-choice goalkeeper Danny Ward, EURO 2016 bronze medalist Ben Davies, and Harry Wilson from Fulham.
Referee and Yellow Cards
The match will be officiated by Juxhin Xhaja (Albania). In his last 10 matches, he averaged 4.9 yellow cards. Liechtenstein have rarely exceeded 3.5 cautions in four out of six matches, while Wales have averaged two yellow cards. Considering the class difference, the game is unlikely to turn overly aggressive. We predict total yellow cards under 3.5.
Goal Prediction
Wales’ challenges against defensive teams remain. Their main creators—Daniel James, Brennan Johnson, and David Brooks—excel in counter-attacks, but positional play has been less effective. In 8 of Liechtenstein’s last 9 home games, total goals did not exceed five. A similar trend exists for Wales in 10 of their last 11 away games. Total goals under 4.5 seems reasonable.
Corner Prediction
Wales are more comfortable on the counter, so set-pieces near the opponent’s goal may be limited in Vaduz. Betting on Wales’ total corners under 9.5 is suggested.
Editor's Prediction
Wales need to catch up with North Macedonia in both points and goal difference to maintain playoff hopes. Their previous win over Liechtenstein was a modest 3-0, and they need to surpass that margin this time.
We believe the "Dragons" are capable of doing so, and our main bet is Wales to win with a handicap of -3.5. However, it is unlikely to see a score higher than 4-0 in favor of Wales.
