Bayer Leverkusen will host St. Pauli on February 3 in the quarterfinals of the German Cup, a fixture that appears far more significant for the hosts than for their struggling visitors.
After delivering a historic “golden double” in 2024, Xabi Alonso concluded his Leverkusen spell with a Bundesliga runner-up finish before departing last summer. His successor, Erik ten Hag, failed to meet expectations, prompting the club to turn to Julmand in an effort to stabilize the project. While Bayer progressed to the Champions League playoffs with a win over Villarreal, their domestic campaign has been uneven. A poor start to 2026 dented their top-four hopes, making recent league victories over Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt particularly vital.
St. Pauli, meanwhile, are in deep trouble. After earning promotion two seasons ago and finishing a respectable 14th, the Hamburg club have suffered a dramatic decline. They now sit at the bottom of the Bundesliga with the league’s weakest record. Recent draws against Hamburg and RB Leipzig offered brief relief, but a defeat to Augsburg reinforced their status as relegation favorites.
Despite their league woes, St. Pauli have produced a spirited cup run. Bayer, last season’s runners-up, cruised past Sonnenhof Großaspach and Paderborn with four goals apiece, before edging Borussia Dortmund away from home. St. Pauli showed resilience by eliminating Eintracht Norderstedt and Hoffenheim on penalties, then securing a dramatic 2–1 victory in Mönchengladbach with a late winner.
The historical balance strongly favors Leverkusen, who have won four of the last five official meetings between the sides.
Form and statistics underline the gap: Bayer are on a three-match winning streak, averaging two goals per game, while St. Pauli struggle offensively and concede heavily. With the visitors focused primarily on survival, Leverkusen enter this tie as clear favorites.
Prediction: Bayer Leverkusen to win in regular time
Odds: 1.60
