🔈 Can the "Crusaders" put up a worthy fight against the "Red Fury"?
One of the most intriguing matchups in Saturday's European qualifiers for the 2026 World Cup is the clash between Georgia and Spain.
Luis de la Fuente's squad have been exemplary in this qualifying cycle and have already secured their spot in the upcoming World Cup. On the other hand, Willy Sagnol and his team have fallen short of expectations, virtually losing all chances of making it to the tournament.
Despite playing at home, bookmakers give Spain a tenfold advantage.
Head-to-Head
📊 In the current qualifying cycle, the teams have already met in Spain. On that occasion, La Roja won 2-0, leaving no chance for Willy Sagnol's squad.
The expected goals (xG) stats: 3.93 vs 0.01 highlight Spain's dominance.
Interestingly, in Georgia, the teams have faced off three times historically, with Spain winning all three matches ⚪
It seems Georgia has fallen short of a miracle, missing out on the main stage of the World Cup for the first time. In four qualifying matches, the "Crusaders" managed only 1 victory and 3 defeats, with their sole win 3-0 against Bulgaria.
However, at home, Georgia performs more cohesively and convincingly. Since the end of EURO 2024, Georgia has suffered just two home defeats—0-1 vs Albania and 2-3 vs Turkey.
In this qualification phase, Georgia averages 1.5 goals per game, while conceding around 2.25 goals per game.
🔴 In their previous qualifier against Turkey, Georgia lost 1-4. The most prolific players so far: Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (2 goals) and Zuriko Davitashvili (1 goal, 1 assist)
Spain
"La Roja" have fully justified their status as group favorites. After four matches, Spain has secured maximum 12 points and remains unbeaten in regulation time of official matches since March 2023.
Impressively, Spain have yet to concede a goal this qualification cycle, scoring an average of 3.75 goals per game. Their tactical style is clear, with well-defined roles, maintaining stability and posing a formidable threat.
🟡 Last qualifier: Spain 4-0 vs Bulgaria, with squad rotation not affecting performance.
33 shots on goal, total xG 3.96
Top players this cycle: Mikel Merino (6 goals, 0 assists) and Mikel Oyarzabal (3 goals, 3 assists)
Georgia
🎤 After a 2-0 loss to Spain in the opening round, Sagnol commented:
"Spain are like they're from another planet. We can try our best, but at this level, we simply stand no chance. 0-2 is already lucky."
FIFA ranking: 70th, squad value €168M
Key players: Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (PSG, €90M), Georges Mikautadze (Villarreal, €30M), Giorgi Mamardashvili (Liverpool, €28M)
❌ Georgia can field their strongest lineup, but a positive result is uncertain.
Spain
🎤 Luis de la Fuente praised his squad:
"We have an outstanding group of young players. We could have won by a larger margin, but to accomplish what we’ve achieved, everything must be done exceptionally well. Compliments won’t weaken us. This is a remarkable team."
❌ Injuries: Robin Le Normand, Dani Carvajal, Rodri, Marc Casado, Pedri, Gavi, Lamine Yamal
🟨 Referee & Yellow Cards
Benoît Bastien (France) will officiate
Average 4.02 yellow cards per game
In 4 of the last 5 Spain matches, ≤4 cautions issued
Prediction: total yellow cards <4.5
⚽ Goal Prediction
In 5 of the last 6 Georgia vs Spain clashes, there were at least 3 goals
Similar trend in 9 of the last 10 Spain matches
Both teams are active in the attacking third, creating plenty of chances
Suggested bet: over 2.5 total goals
🚩 Corner Prediction
Georgia averages 9 corners per game, Spain 10 corners per game
In 5 of the last 6 Georgia matches, ≤10 corners
In 7 of the last 9 Spain matches, ≤10 corners
Suggested bet: total corners <9.5
Editorial Prediction
History and current form indicate the "Crusaders" have minimal chances of success.
Georgia often needs to adapt to top-tier tactics, which isn’t their strong suit.
Spain may rotate players to give reserves opportunities before the World Cup.
✅ Final Score Prediction: Georgia 1-3 Spain
Key bet: Spain -1.5 Handicap
