Leeds United were crowned EFL Championship champions last season with an impressive 100 points, earning automatic promotion to the Premier League. However, life back in the top flight has proven challenging. After 24 league matches this season, Leeds have recorded 6 wins, 8 draws and 10 defeats, sitting 16th on 26 points and hovering just above the relegation battle.
Elland Road has been their main source of stability. Leeds have collected 19 of their 26 points at home, with a record of 5 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses, more than double their away tally. Despite a recent dip in form — including a heavy 0-4 home defeat to Arsenal last round — Leeds had previously gone five home matches unbeaten, beating the likes of Chelsea, Crystal Palace and Fulham, underlining their home advantage.
Nottingham Forest, meanwhile, enjoyed a historic campaign last season, finishing seventh and qualifying for European competition — their best top-flight result since returning to the Premier League after a 23-year absence. This season, however, Forest have struggled for consistency. After 24 matches, they sit 17th with 26 points, only six points clear of the relegation zone, having dropped ten places compared to last year.
Interestingly, Forest have been stronger away from home, picking up 14 points on the road, two more than they have earned at home. Momentum is also on their side. They secured a place in the Europa League knockout play-offs after a crucial win over Ferencváros and have followed that up with consecutive away league victories against West Ham United and Brentford.
The market has largely installed Leeds United as slight favourites, offering a -0.25 handicap in their favour. While both sides share the same points total and face similar relegation pressure, Leeds’ status as a newly promoted side — coupled with their lack of involvement in other competitions — highlights their limited overall strength.
Forest, by contrast, boast deeper squad quality, European experience and improving form. Added to that is their dominant victory over Leeds in the reverse fixture earlier this season, which further tilts the balance in their favour.
Prediction: Nottingham Forest to avoid defeat
Recommendation: Asian Handicap – Leeds United -0.25 ❌ (Back Forest)
