Serie A Round 7 Preview: AC Milan to Host Fiorentina – Can the Weakened Rossoneri Crush the Struggling Viola?
Round 7 of Serie A will feature a classic mismatch as AC Milan host Fiorentina at San Siro. On the current standings, the Rossoneri sit 4th with 13 points from 4 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, while Fiorentina are deep in the relegation zone with just 3 points from 0 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses. Despite the apparent gap in quality, this clash holds several intriguing storylines.
1. Vastly Different Form: Milan Solid at Both Ends, Fiorentina Struggle Away
AC Milan have been a defensive powerhouse recently. In their last 6 matches, they’ve claimed 5 wins and 1 draw, conceding only 1 goal—an unsurpassed record in Serie A. Away at Udinese, they kept a clean sheet and won 3-0. At home, they are even more formidable, winning 5 of their last 6 matches with 11 goals scored and just 3 conceded, demonstrating a balanced attack and defense. Milan operate primarily with a three-center-back system, shifting to five at the back defensively, while attacking through wing play and set-pieces. Their league-low expected goals conceded per match (0.23) highlights their defensive resilience.
Fiorentina, on the other hand, have struggled since the start of the season. They have yet to win a league match, averaging just 0.67 goals per game while conceding 8. Though unbeaten in away matches (1 win, 5 draws), their attack has been almost non-existent, scoring only 1 goal in their last 3 league trips. Key striker Kean has returned from injury, but his partner Quam remains sidelined, weakening the frontline. Fiorentina’s 4-3-3 possession system lacks creativity in midfield, making it difficult to break down a compact defense.
2. Injuries as a Key Variable: Milan Midfield Weakened, Viola Defense in Crisis
Injuries add uncertainty to this matchup. AC Milan’s midfield has been hit hard: Rabiot (calf) and Pulisic are unavailable, while Salemakers has also joined the injury list, reducing the team’s ability to control the game. For a Milan side that relies on precise midfield passing to launch counterattacks, this is a serious blow. Pulisic, who previously contributed 15 goals and 15 assists, being out significantly reduces the effectiveness of wing attacks.
Fiorentina’s defense is also heavily affected: Lamptain is out for the season with a knee injury, and Estupinian is also sidelined. Facing Milan’s high pressing with a weakened backline makes defending at San Siro a daunting task. However, goalkeeper De Gea, who made several key saves against Milan last season, could prove to be the team’s “safety net.”
3. Historical Matchups Add Intrigue: Milan Strong at Home, Fiorentina Not to Be Underestimated
Despite the current gap in the table, the two sides have a tense history. In 37 meetings, AC Milan hold a slight edge with 17 wins, 9 draws, and 11 losses, including 10 home wins at San Siro. Fiorentina, however, are no pushovers: in the last 3 encounters, they have remained unbeaten with 2 wins and 1 draw, including a 2-1 home victory and 2-2 away draw last season, showing they can challenge the Rossoneri.
Notably, Milan lost unexpectedly at home 1-2 to Cremonese this season, exposing a potential vulnerability against weaker teams. Fiorentina, meanwhile, have often “leveled the gap” on the road, with 5 draws in their last 6 away matches, suggesting they may seek points through defensive counterattacks.
4. Predicted Outcome: Milan Likely to Win Narrowly, Fiorentina Could Force a Draw
Statistically, AC Milan hold the advantage with home support and superior attacking and defensive strength, but midfield injuries may reduce their attacking efficiency. Fiorentina, though struggling, have shown resilience away (just 2 goals conceded in 6 matches) and historical strength against Milan, making a draw possible. Considering recent form and injury impacts, this match is likely to end either as a 1-0 narrow win for Milan or a 1-1 draw.
