UEFA Champions League 2025/26 Match Preview: Liverpool vs Real Madrid

Match Details:

• Date & Time: November 4, 2025, 21:00 GMT (Local Time: Liverpool)

• Venue: Anfield Stadium, Liverpool

• Competition: UEFA Champions League, Group Stage, Round 4

1. Team Overview & Core Conflict

Liverpool:

• Premier League: 3rd (10 matches: 6W-0D-4L)

• Squad Value: €4.207B

• Home Record: 7W-1D-2L, 17 GF / 6 GA

• Champions League: 2W-0D-1L, 6 points, 10th in group ranking (qualification at risk)

Real Madrid:

• La Liga: 1st (10 matches: 9W-0D-1L)

• Squad Value: €6.278B

• Away Record: 5W-0D-1L, 17 GF / 7 GA

• Champions League: 3W-0D-0L, 9 points, 5th in group ranking (qualification likely)

Core Conflict:
Liverpool faces home advantage but a severe injury crisis, while Real Madrid brings strong form and momentum. Both teams have strong motivation: Liverpool must win to stay in contention, Real Madrid aims to secure top spot in the group.

2. Key Injuries

Liverpool: "Four cores + defensive mainstays" out, overall strength down ~30%

• Alisson Becker (GK): thigh injury, out until Nov 24

• Alexander Isak (FW): groin injury, out

• Jeremy Frimpong (DF): hamstring injury, out until Nov 10

• Giovanni Leonie (DF): ACL tear, out for season

• Curtis Jones (MF): groin, doubtful

• Trent Alexander-Arnold (DF): recovering, no start yet

Impact: Reduced defensive stability and attacking firepower. Backup goalkeeper Mamadashvili and forward Ekitic are not fully reliable.

Real Madrid: "Defensive core + wing threat + midfield prospect" out, strength down ~25%

• Dani Carvajal (RB): knee surgery, out until Jan 2026

• Antonio Rüdiger (DF): hamstring, out until early Dec

• Franco Mastantono (MF): pubic injury, indefinite

• David Alaba & Éder Militão (DFs): minor injuries, doubtful

Impact: Slightly weakened defense, especially right flank, but Mbappé and Bellingham can compensate offensively.

Injury Comparison: Liverpool suffers more severe losses, especially in defense and attack, narrowing the gap with Real Madrid and giving the visitors relative advantage.

3. Team Form

Liverpool: Home dominance but unstable, injury-affected

• Last 10 matches: 4W-6L, 17 GF / 18 GA

• Champions League home: 1W-0D-0L, 3 GF / 2 GA

• Recent form: 2-0 win vs Aston Villa

• Tactical: 4-3-3, high press, relies on Salah (11 goals) and Diaz; Isak absence reduces attacking pivot

• Defense weakened by Alisson absence

Real Madrid: Strong away form, 6 consecutive wins, balanced

• Last 10 matches: 9W-1L, 24 GF / 8 GA

• Champions League away: 3W-0D-0L, 8 GF / 1 GA

• Recent form: 4-0 win vs Valencia

• Tactical: 4-2-3-1 or 4-4-2, ball control + wing attacks, Mbappé (18 goals) and Bellingham (9 goals, 6 assists) in form

• Defense slightly weakened but still well-organized

Form Comparison: Liverpool’s injuries and inconsistent results contrast with Real Madrid’s dominant streak; visitors have a clear form advantage.

4. Head-to-Head & Motivation

Historical Record: Real Madrid leads

• 14 meetings: 8W-6L-0D

• Recent 5 meetings: 4W-1L, 4 clean sheets

• Last meeting: Liverpool 2-0 Real Madrid (Nov 28, 2024)

Motivation:

• Liverpool: must-win to retain qualification hopes; home advantage + desperation

• Real Madrid: can clinch group top; continue momentum

Psychological Edge: Slightly favors Real Madrid due to form, history, and less pressure.

5. Betting Market Analysis

European Odds:

• Initial: 2.40 / 3.30 / 2.87 (H/D/A)

• Current: 2.55-2.60 / 3.20-3.30 / 2.60-2.70

• Trend: Rising home odds, falling away odds → market favors Real Madrid

Asian Handicap:

• Initial: Liverpool -0.25 (high water)

• Current: Real Madrid +0.25 (low water) → indicates confidence in away team not losing

Betfair & Fund Flow:

• Main bets show professional funds favor Real Madrid; small-scale bets still slightly favor Liverpool

Conclusion: Markets align with analysis: Liverpool risky, Real Madrid likely to win or at least draw.

6. Betting & Score Predictions

1X2:

• Primary: Real Madrid win (35-40%) → 0-1 or 1-2

• Secondary: Draw (20-25%) → 1-1

• Low-probability: Liverpool win (30-35%) → 2-1

Handicap:

• Real Madrid +0.25 (preferred, low risk)

• Real Madrid 0 (secondary)

Over/Under:

• Total goals <2.5 preferred due to Liverpool’s weakened attack; small goal probability ~55%

Overall Strategy:

• Core: Real Madrid win 50% stake

• Support: Real Madrid +0.25 handicap 40% stake

• Supplement: Under 2.5 goals 30% stake

7. Final Prediction

Most Likely Score: Liverpool 0-1 Real Madrid (40%)
Alternative Score: Liverpool 1-1 Real Madrid (25%)
Upset Score: Liverpool 2-1 Real Madrid (35%)

Summary:
Liverpool’s injury crisis and Real Madrid’s strong form make the away team favorite. Markets and professional money flows reinforce this view. Best approach: back Real Madrid win and/or +0.25 handicap; consider under 2.5 goals for safer betting.