Eighteenth-placed Mallorca host ninth-placed Elche in a matchup loaded with tension and uncertainty. Mallorca, only one point clear of the relegation zone and hit by six absences (including four key defensive players), are a wounded survival fighter. However, they hold a strong home record against Elche with three wins and one draw, and their set-piece scoring efficiency ranks among the top five in La Liga. Elche, meanwhile, sit seven points off the European qualification places. While strong at home, they have lost all six away matches this season, conceding an average of 2.5 goals per game, and arrive with two major attacking players sidelined. With a draw rate of 46% in their last 13 meetings, this clash of depleted squads and contrasting motivations promises maximum suspense.
Mallorca: Home Fortress Undermined by Injuries, Survival Urgency at Its Peak
Recent form
Mallorca have recorded 3 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses this season, collecting 14 points and remaining stuck in the relegation zone. Their recent form is bleak, with just one draw and five defeats in the last six rounds. Earlier in the campaign, home defense was their saving grace, as they went 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in five home matches, conceding only 0.75 goals per game. However, they are now winless in six consecutive home matches, scoring 5 goals and conceding 13. Injuries have completely destabilized the back line: goalkeeper Rajković (cheekbone fracture), defender Lato, and midfielders Costa and Rodríguez (suspended), among others, leave six players unavailable, effectively paralyzing the team’s spine.
Offensively, Mallorca rank third from bottom in La Liga, scoring just 10 goals in 15 matches. Still, 30% of their goals come from set pieces. Against Elche, they have gone 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last five encounters, providing a clear psychological edge.
Tactical approach
Mallorca typically deploy a 5-3-2 defensive setup, sacrificing possession (averaging just 40%) and relying on intense pressing at home along with set-piece opportunities. Their midfield interception success rate stands at 61%. However, since the injury to key midfielder Mascarell, transitions between defense and attack have sharply declined. Defensive coordination has weakened, with 32% of goals conceded coming between the 75th and 90th minute. They also struggle badly against pacey wide players, leaving set pieces and counterattacks as their primary scoring routes.
Key players
Striker Vedat Muriqi is Mallorca’s main hope. Standing at 1.94 meters tall, he boasts a 68% aerial duel success rate and has contributed 4 goals and 1 assist this season, directly involved in 3 goals over the last four matches. Midfielder Dani Rodríguez averages 2.1 key passes per game and shoulders most of the creative burden. Backup goalkeeper Bergström is set to start, tasked with filling the huge void left by Rajković’s absence.
Elche: Home Strength Meets Away Curse, Injuries Complicate the Task
Recent form
Elche have enjoyed a relatively stable season with 6 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, earning 22 points and sitting comfortably in mid-table. Their home form is impressive at 5 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, and they come into this match after a 2-0 victory over Getafe. However, their away record is disastrous: six matches, six defeats, no points, three goals scored, and fifteen conceded, making them the only La Liga side without an away point this season.
In attack, Elche have scored 8 goals in their last five matches, showing encouraging momentum. Yet injuries to key forwards Diangana and André Silva significantly weaken their finishing power. Defensively, the suspension of center-back Chust further undermines stability at the back.
Tactical approach
Elche usually line up in a 4-2-3-1 at home, but shift to a 5-4-1 low block when playing away, focusing on long balls and wing-based counterattacks. Forty-two percent of their goals come from wide deliveries or inside cuts, while set pieces account for as much as 43% of their total goals. Despite averaging 52% possession away from home, fitness issues often lead to ineffective attacking play. Three of their last five goals conceded have come after the 70th minute, highlighting problems against compact defenses late in games.
Key players
Veteran striker Lucas Boyé, now 34, has rediscovered his form, scoring 3 goals in his last four matches. He is Elche’s most reliable scorer and plays a crucial role as both a target man and finisher. Midfielder Gumbau averages 2.3 tackles per game and acts as the engine in transitions. Goalkeeper Edgar Badía, with a save success rate of 77%, has repeatedly delivered crucial stops away from home and remains the final line of defense.
Scoreline and Goals Outlook
Mallorca’s survival desperation and set-piece strength at home will clash with Elche’s pace on the flanks and their own reliance on dead-ball situations. However, both sides are heavily affected by injuries, limiting attacking efficiency while exposing defensive weaknesses. Given the high historical draw rate, Elche’s poor away form, and the current condition of both squads, this match is likely to be a tight, low-scoring affair.
Goals prediction
1–2 total goals
Score prediction
1–1 draw (48% probability)
Alternative outcome: 1–0 Mallorca (41% probability, driven by home survival momentum)
