Athletic Bilbao currently sit 8th in the league with 20 points. Although their overall results have been moderate, their recent form has improved, going unbeaten in their last two matches, including a 2–0 away win over Levante. Their home performance is impressive — San Mamés Stadium is known as a fortress, with Bilbao losing only once in their last five home matches. Even more remarkable, they have conceded an average of just 0.5 goals across their last six home games, making their stadium a true steel stronghold.
Real Madrid, meanwhile, sit second in the table with 10 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss, collecting 33 points. With one match fewer played, they trail league leaders Barcelona by four points, giving them strong motivation to close the gap. However, their recent form has been shaky, as they have recorded three consecutive league draws.
The core tactical battle of this match lies in whether Real Madrid’s powerful attacking system can break through Athletic Bilbao’s ironclad home defense.
Bilbao rely heavily on disciplined defending and the strong atmosphere at San Mamés. Under coach Valverde, the team builds its foundation on a compact defensive structure and an aggressive home presence. At home, they can create suffocating defensive pressure, which will challenge Madrid’s ability to break down organized blocks. Offensively, Bilbao must depend on wing play and set pieces to create danger.
However, their defensive integrity is severely impacted by injuries and suspensions. Key players such as centre-back Yeray Álvarez (suspended), midfielders Beñat Prados and Unai Egiluz, among others, will miss the match. This significantly weakens both the back line and the midfield transitions.
Real Madrid’s firepower remains their strongest weapon. They average 2.07 goals per match this season, with Mbappé in spectacular form, leading the scoring chart with 14 goals. Their overall quality and chance creation capacity are clear advantages.
But their away form has been problematic, with only one win in their last five away matches. Injuries on the defensive end — including absences for Carvajal and Alaba — also raise concerns about their backline stability. Coach Xabi Alonso has publicly admitted that playing at San Mamés requires full concentration, highlighting how challenging this away fixture is.
Mbappé vs the entire Bilbao defense will be one of the biggest focal points. As Real Madrid’s sharpest attacking weapon, his pace and finishing ability are key to unlocking the match. Bilbao must rely on compact team defense and timely covering to limit his space. Any isolated one-on-one duel could decide the outcome. Whether Bilbao can use their physicality and tactical fouls to disrupt Mbappé’s supply lines may determine the match’s defensive success.
Real Madrid must dominate the midfield to control the tempo. With Bilbao suffering several midfield absences, Madrid have an opportunity to establish superiority in this area. Strong midfield control would ease pressure on their defense and allow them to sustain attacks deep in the opponent’s half.
History clearly favors Real Madrid, who have earned 7 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in their last 10 encounters. However, Bilbao have shown strong resistance at home, going unbeaten in their last three home matches against Real Madrid with 2 wins and 1 draw. This creates an intriguing psychological balance: Madrid hold the historical edge, while Bilbao have the recent home advantage. Which will be stronger — historical momentum or present confidence?
In my view, Real Madrid should be able to secure a win away from home.
Bilbao’s injury crisis significantly weakens their lineup, while Madrid—despite having injuries as well—possess far more match-winning talent on the attacking end. In a tight match, moments of brilliance from key players often decide the outcome.
Real Madrid are fighting for the league title, and every point is crucial for them. Bilbao, despite their strong pride at home, do not have the same urgency in their objectives.
