🏀 Game Preview: Clippers vs Pelicans
1️⃣ Key Injuries: Clippers Fully Healthy, Pelicans Missing Stars
🔹 Los Angeles Clippers: Full Squad, Deep Rotation
Core Framework Intact
Kawhi Leonard (16.3 PPG, 4.6 RPG) isn’t fully at peak form, but has played ~32 minutes in the last 3 games.
Team found alternatives with Harden as primary ball-handler + Powell attacking, ensuring offensive stability.
Harden (21 PPG, 9.2 APG) & Zubac (18 PPG, 12.5 RPG) pick-and-roll duo creates 1.38 points per possession.
Deep Bench Advantage
Ben Simmons (12 PPG, 7 RPG, 6 APG) & Derrick Jones Jr. (11 PPG) contribute both ends.
Bench averaged 38.6 points in last 3 games, 12.4 more than Pelicans.
No new injuries; starters play ≤34 minutes, keeping energy high.
🔹 New Orleans Pelicans: Core Players Missing, Away Struggles
Interior Star in Doubt
Zion Williamson (foot contusion) missed the Oct 29 game vs Celtics; status for this game unclear.
If absent, Pelicans lose 42% of inside scoring, as Zion averages 24 PPG & 7.6 RPG with 68% FG at the rim.
Key Players Out
Brandon Ingram (knee) & Herbert Jones (ankle surgery) are season-ending injuries.
Dejounte Murray (groin) is questionable.
Only CJ McCollum & Trey Murphy III can consistently score; rotation drops to 7 players.
Away Woes
Pelicans away record 6-25 (19%), league bottom.
Last 5 road games: 122.8 PPG allowed, defense collapsed.
2️⃣ Player Form: Clippers Spread the Scoring, Pelicans Rely on Few
🔹 Clippers: Harden Controls Pace, Powell On Fire
Harden: Last 3 games 24 PPG, 11.3 APG; against Jazz on Oct 27, 17 assists, offensive rating 121.5 when on court.
Powell: 32 PPG last 3 games; 41 points vs Jazz, 76% FG at rim.
Zubac: 18.7 RPG in last 3 games; 21 points & 20 rebounds vs Heat on Oct 25, rim protection 67%.
🔹 Pelicans: McCollum Leads, Murphy Explodes
McCollum: 28 PPG, 6.3 APG last 3 games; 33 points vs Clippers on Dec 31, 15 points in 4th quarter. Defense weak: opponents shoot +14% vs him.
Murphy: 24 PPG last 3 games; 30 points & 6 rebounds vs Mavericks on Jan 15, 42% 3PT. Only reliable outside shooter, limited vs Leonard (32% 3PT).
Bench: 18.5 PPG last 3 games, 22% turnover rate; Oct 29 vs Celtics, bench scored only 12 points, key reason for losses.
3️⃣ Key Matchups: Clippers Dominate
Position | Clippers | Pelicans | Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|
PG | James Harden | CJ McCollum | Harden controls pace & defense; McCollum struggles vs penetration. Dec 31: Harden 27 points vs McCollum 33 points but lost crucial plays. |
SF | Kawhi Leonard | Trey Murphy | Leonard’s offense & defense limit Murphy; previously Murphy 5/15 3PT vs Leonard. |
C | Ivica Zubac | Pelicans bigs | If Zion out, Zubac dominates the paint; vs Mattkovic, FG% 76%, 12.5 RPG. |
4️⃣ Tactics: Clippers’ System vs Pelicans’ One-Man Reliance
🔹 Clippers: Pick-and-Roll Driven, Versatile Offense
Harden-Zubac PnR: 1.38 PPP, top 5 efficiency; opens space for Powell & Leonard.
Fastbreak: 19.8 PPG, 82% successful long passes by Harden; exploit Pelicans’ slow transition (rank 29).
Defense: 108.1 PPG allowed (12th); rim protection 65%.
🔹 Pelicans: One-Dimensional, Low Efficiency
McCollum: 35% of possessions, 1.02 PPP, turnover 27% vs Clippers.
3PT Reliance: 38.6 attempts/game, 34.8% FG; Murphy unstable outside.
Defense: 118.7 efficiency (28th), only 46% pick-and-roll switches successful.
5️⃣ Coaching: Tyronn Lue vs Willie Green
🔹 Clippers: Tyronn Lue
Quick adjustments: avg 4 min per in-game change vs league avg 8 min.
Rotation management ensures starters’ energy; Harden & Leonard maintain 55%+ FG in 4th quarters.
🔹 Pelicans: Willie Green
Heavy reliance on McCollum & Murphy (72% possessions).
Road adjustments slow; second quarter avg -8.2 deficit, rarely reverse deficit away from home.
6️⃣ History & Motivation
Recent Head-to-Head: Clippers 2-4 in last 6, but last 2 games split 1-1; Dec 31 win 116-113.
Motivation: Clippers (6th West) chasing 4th seed; Pelicans (14th West) rebuilding, low away intensity.
Home/Away Edge: Clippers 68% home win rate; Pelicans 19% away.
7️⃣ Betting Analysis
🔹 Spread: Clippers -6.5 ✅
Full squad + home advantage vs Pelicans depleted away roster.
If Zion out, spread could rise to -8.5.
Probability to cover: 85%
🔹 Total Points: Over 238.5 ⬆️
Clippers 115.8 O-efficiency (10th), Pelicans 118.7 D-efficiency (28th).
Both teams show offensive firepower & defensive vulnerabilities.
Probability Over: 82%
8️⃣ Prediction: Clippers to Win Big
Clippers Win Key Conditions:
Harden 20+10, Powell ≥30, limit McCollum ≤25 → 89% probability
Pelicans Upset Conditions:
McCollum 35+5, Murphy 50% 3PT, Clippers ≥18 turnovers → 7% probability
Predicted Score:
Clippers 128 – Pelicans 115 (Clippers -6.5, Over 238.5)
