The new NBA season is already underway, and this year brings a fresh landscape once again. However, one thing that never changes in the Western Conference is the intense competition — the defending champion Thunder will face heavy challenges from multiple teams. With the new season tipping off, ESPN released its projected standings for both conferences. Today, let’s focus on the West to see which teams might stir up controversy or emerge as surprise contenders.
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
Projected wins: 59.2
The Thunder are undoubtedly the favorites to win both the Western Conference and the NBA championship this season. They’re projected to win nearly 60 games — the most since the 2017–18 Warriors. The team has started the season with a 4-game winning streak, including two double-overtime victories. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren have both been rock-solid, keeping OKC among the title favorites.
2. Golden State Warriors
Projected wins: 56.1
The Warriors’ placement at No. 2 is perhaps the biggest surprise. ESPN projects them to win about four more games than most other contenders. The main reason? The network predicts Golden State will finally have a full season with superstar Jimmy Butler, whose presence last year coincided with a 76.7% win rate. With 11 players rated above league average, the Warriors are expected to finish the season strong.
3. Denver Nuggets
Projected wins: 52.2
Whether second or third, Denver clearly belongs to the Western Conference’s second tier of contenders. They made several key offseason additions — Cameron Johnson, Bruce Brown, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Jonas Valančiūnas — which greatly improved their depth. With Nikola Jokić still performing at an MVP level, the Nuggets remain a major threat to dethrone the defending champs.
4. Los Angeles Clippers
Projected wins: 49.7
For the Clippers to stay in the top half of the standings, Kawhi Leonard’s health will be crucial. ESPN predicts he’ll play 66 games this season — more than in any other season with the Clippers. The team’s veteran core still provides valuable experience, and many of their regular rotation players boast a per-100-possession plus-minus above -0.5.
5. Houston Rockets
Projected wins: 46.9
The Rockets’ ranking at fifth might come down to their lack of a true point guard. With Fred VanVleet sidelined by a torn ACL, the team’s ability to stay competitive in the upper half of the West is questionable. Kevin Durant’s impact so far hasn’t fully met expectations, and the Rockets will need their young players to step up while allowing KD to close out games in key moments.
6. Los Angeles Lakers
Projected wins: 45.8
It’s nothing new for the Lakers to be doubted. LeBron James is expected to miss nearly a month, and Luka Dončić will also be out for about a week — factors that will likely hurt their record. However, Dončić is projected to play at near-MVP level this season. The issue for the Lakers remains their lack of depth, which limits their overall competitiveness.
7. Memphis Grizzlies
Projected wins: 44.6
Last season, the Grizzlies’ point differential trailed only the two Western Conference finalists. Even after losing Desmond Bane in the offseason, projections suggest Memphis can avoid the play-in tournament under the leadership of Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. However, Morant’s health remains a concern after a left ankle sprain, and his return date is still unclear.
8. Minnesota Timberwolves
Projected wins: 43.7
Last year’s Western Conference finalist is expected to enter the play-in mix this time. With Nickeil Alexander-Walker gone, the Wolves must rely on young guards to fill rotation minutes, and veteran Mike Conley’s age could become a problem. While Anthony Edwards is expected to continue improving, it will be tough for Minnesota to maintain its success with little change to its roster.
Other teams (in order): Mavericks, Kings, Spurs, Trail Blazers, Suns, Pelicans, and Jazz.
The Mavericks making the play-in isn’t controversial — freshman Cooper Flagg being tested at point guard may not yield eye-catching numbers, and Kyrie Irving will miss significant time.
The biggest talking point, however, is the Spurs. They’ve started the season with a 4-game winning streak, and Victor Wembanyama looks absolutely dominant. While this roster isn’t yet championship-caliber, it’s hard to believe they wouldn’t at least make the play-in tournament given their current form.
