Latest Form and Key Performance Data
Burnley have endured a difficult Premier League campaign so far. Ahead of this fixture, they sit 19th in the table with a record of 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses, collecting only 10 points and firmly stuck in the relegation zone. The pressure to survive is immense. Their recent form is alarming, with no wins in the last five league matches (1 draw, 4 losses), a run that has significantly damaged team morale.
Offensively, Burnley rely heavily on set pieces and counter-attacks, lacking creativity in open play. They average just 10.2 shots per game with a low shot-on-target rate of 28%, scoring only 0.8 goals per match, the second-worst attacking record in the league. Lyle Foster remains the only relatively consistent scorer, netting 3 league goals this season, yet he has failed to register a single shot on target in his last five home league appearances, highlighting his poor current form.
Defensively, Burnley are among the weakest sides in the league. They concede an average of 2.2 goals per match, a figure that rises to 2.4 goals over the last five rounds. The situation is worsened by serious injury and suspension issues. Defenders Connor Roberts and Jordan Beyer are sidelined through injury, while Lucas Pires is suspended, leaving the back line severely depleted and disorganized.
Fulham, by contrast, have delivered a steady but unspectacular season. With 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats, they sit 12th on 17 points, comfortably 7 points clear of the relegation zone but 10 points away from European qualification. This “nothing-to-play-for” position has somewhat reduced their urgency in recent matches. Over the last five league games, Fulham have recorded 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses, while their away form remains underwhelming, with no wins in their last three away fixtures.
In attack, Fulham depend on the partnership between Harry Wilson and Raúl Jiménez. Wilson leads the team with 3 goals and 1 assist, while Jiménez has contributed 2 goals and 3 assists, offering versatility and experience in the final third. Statistically, Fulham average 12.6 shots per game over the last five rounds, with a 32% shot-on-target rate and 1.4 goals per match, clearly superior to Burnley’s output. Defensively, they concede 1.9 goals per game and have allowed 5 goals in their last three away matches, showing inconsistency but still greater stability than Burnley’s fragile defense.
Head-to-Head Record and League Context
Recent head-to-head data presents an interesting contrast. In the last five official meetings, Fulham hold the advantage with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss. However, Burnley boast a remarkable home record against Fulham, remaining unbeaten in their last eight home encounters, with 5 wins and 3 draws. This gives Burnley a strong psychological edge at Turf Moor.
The most recent meeting came in March 2025, when Fulham secured a 2-1 away victory. They dominated possession with 56% and outshot Burnley 16-13, with Raúl Jiménez scoring twice to seal the win. Notably, in three of the last four meetings at Turf Moor, the total number of goals exceeded 2.5, suggesting relatively open and attacking contests.
From a league perspective, Burnley are fighting for survival, making this home match a crucial opportunity to gain points. Fulham, meanwhile, sit safely in mid-table, free from relegation fears and without realistic European ambitions. In terms of motivation, Burnley clearly have more at stake, though their poor form and limited quality raise doubts about their ability to capitalize on this urgency.
Key Factors That Could Shape the Match
Home psychological advantage
Burnley’s eight-match unbeaten home run against Fulham provides significant psychological encouragement, especially under intense relegation pressure. The backing of the home crowd could spark a strong emotional response. However, Fulham’s recent success in the head-to-head record means they also approach the fixture with confidence, making the mental battle a crucial subplot.
Injuries and suspensions
Burnley’s defensive injury crisis is arguably the most decisive factor. With multiple first-choice defenders unavailable, their defensive structure is close to collapse. Fulham, on the other hand, are missing only fringe players such as Antonee Robinson and Rodrigo Muniz, leaving their core lineup largely intact. The contrast in defensive stability could heavily influence the outcome.
Form of key players
Raúl Jiménez has already proven himself a decisive figure against Burnley, scoring twice in their most recent meeting. His current form remains solid and he represents Fulham’s primary attacking threat. Burnley’s Lyle Foster, by comparison, is struggling badly, failing to register shots on target in recent home matches, while the team lacks alternative reliable scorers.
Multi-Dimensional Evaluation and Match Prediction Logic
From a statistical perspective, Burnley have a 0% win rate over their last five matches and a home win rate of just 20%, with both attacking and defensive metrics ranking near the bottom of the league. Fulham’s recent win rate stands at 20%, with a 0% away win rate, but their overall balance and squad depth remain superior.
From a historical standpoint, Fulham have won three of the last five meetings, while Burnley’s long-standing home unbeaten record adds complexity to the prediction. In terms of form, neither side is convincing, yet Fulham benefit from a healthier squad and a more resilient tactical structure.
Taking all factors into account, Burnley’s strong desire to escape the relegation zone may not be enough to overcome their defensive weaknesses. Fulham may lack urgency, but their overall quality gives them the edge. A draw appears the most likely outcome, with a narrow Fulham away victory as a secondary possibility.
Final Score Prediction
Burnley 1–1 Fulham
Alternative scenario: Burnley 1–2 Fulham
